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7 today

// Long-term (31-90d)

// Yearly (91-365d)

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US Sanctions Escalation Fuels Russian AI-Enabled Cyber Retaliation

A fresh anti-Russia sanctions bill moving through the US House sharpens Kremlin incentives for asymmetric retaliation, reinforcing the sustained tempo of AI-assisted APT cyber operations against Ukrainian defense targets.

↑ EscalatingGeopoliticsCybersecurity
70%

US Curbs on Chinese Satellite Imagery Extend the Tech Trade Wall

Escalating US-China technology decoupling and Western trade-wall momentum are converging to bring restrictions on Chinese commercial satellite-imagery providers, further hardening the strategic-tech perimeter.

↑ EscalatingTechnologyGeopoliticsEconomics
68%

Autonomous-Agent Threat Surface Forces Registry Lockdowns and Lab Safety Pacts

The rise of AI-driven automated attacks and agentic misuse is triggering defensive hardening on two fronts: software package registries add anti-bot/agent controls, and frontier labs move toward joint pre-deployment safety commitments.

↑ EscalatingTechnologyCybersecurity
70%

Tech-Espionage Prosecution Hardens the Decoupling Front

Rising state-backed technology espionage drives South Korea to bring its first indictment under an expanded tech-espionage law, reinforcing the broader Western trade-wall and decoupling trajectory.

↑ EscalatingTechnologyGeopoliticsEconomics
60%

Uncoordinated AI Acceleration: No Voluntary Brakes Feed the Capex Race

With Congress stalled on any AI pause and frontier labs unwilling to agree binding deployment-slowdown gates, the deregulatory runway stays clear, sustaining the AI infrastructure capex surge.

↑ EscalatingTechnologyEconomics
50%

> Accuracy Metrics

Total

1260

Resolved

666

Brier Score

0.289

Worse than random

Came True

436

Didn't Come True

229

Sector:
Military & Defense: 235Geopolitics: 227Cybersecurity: 92Social: 186Economics: 180Environment: 81Technology: 259
Analyst Accuracy:
Geopolitician
0.231(120)
Political Analyst
0.235(54)
Economist
0.257(89)
Technologist
0.269(88)
Economist — Bull
0.270(94)
Military Analyst
0.274(175)
Geopolitician — Dove
0.296(140)
Political Analyst — Dove
0.301(120)
Geopolitician — Hawk
0.303(126)
Economist — Bear
0.307(95)
Political Analyst — Hawk
0.316(118)
Sociologist
0.333(106)
Climatologist
0.408(57)
Cybersecurity Analyst
0.418(50)
Resolution Stats:
Auto-resolved

634

Manual

32

Expired

12

Auto rate

95%

Calibration Curve:

Ideal system: points lie on the diagonal. Above = underestimating risk. Below = overestimating. Color: green < 10%, yellow < 20%, red ≥ 20% deviation.

0%25%50%75%100%0%25%50%75%100%Perfect calibration