> Daily Digest
7 today// Medium-term (8-30d)
// Long-term (31-90d)
// Yearly (91-365d)
> Active Narratives
Browse all forecasts →Kremlin Pre-Duma War-Strain Management: Deferral, Repression, and Resource Control
Facing mounting war-economy strain, the Kremlin is sequencing its pain: deferring unpopular mobilization and tax measures while intensifying selective repression and financial-resource control to insulate the September Duma vote.
Black Sea Refinery Fires Widen Russia's Budget Deficit
Recurring strike-driven fires and fuel-contamination events across Black Sea and Azov port-refinery infrastructure are cutting into Russian hydrocarbon throughput and export revenue, compounding a federal budget deficit already on track to breach 10 trillion rubles.
Russian Strike Escalation Hardens NATO's Eastern Shield
Fresh evidence of Russia firing North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine is intensifying the perceived threat along NATO's eastern flank, accelerating both frontline interceptor transfers and domestic counter-hybrid hardening in core NATO states.
Oil-Driven Inflation Pins the Long End of the US Curve
Convergent Gulf and oil-market risk premia are feeding sticky US inflation, keeping the 30-year Treasury yield entrenched above 5%.
Chinese Air-Defense Transfer Emboldens Iran and Draws Secondary Sanctions
China's delivery of shoulder-launched air-defense missiles hardens Iran against US/Israeli strikes, sustaining Gulf coercion while intensifying the secondary-sanctions confrontation over Chinese tech.
> Accuracy Metrics
945
482
0.266
Worse than random
340
141
450
32
9
93%
Ideal system: points lie on the diagonal. Above = underestimating risk. Below = overestimating. Color: green < 10%, yellow < 20%, red ≥ 20% deviation.