# Seldon Vault

> Multi-agent AI forecasting engine for geopolitical, economic, technological, social, environmental, military, and cybersecurity events.

## What is Seldon Vault?

Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 11 specialized analysts (including dual-persona Hawk/Dove and Bull/Bear pairs), an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking capabilities, and a Seldon Arbiter (ReACT mode with 6 tools) to generate daily probabilistic forecasts. Unlike prediction markets (Polymarket, Metaculus) that aggregate human bets, Seldon Vault uses AI agents that independently analyze signals and debate through an adversarial review process. Inspired by Hari Seldon's psychohistory from Isaac Asimov's Foundation series.

## How it works

1. **Data Collection**: News signals collected from RSS (~63 feeds), Telegram (34 channels), Reddit, Bluesky, GDELT, ACLED, Polymarket, Metaculus, FRED, GDACS — 4x/day continuous ingest
2. **Signal Processing**: AI classifies signals by sector, sentiment, importance, and temporal scope (immediate vs structural)
3. **Knowledge Graph**: Signal clustering (embedding cosine similarity), source reliability ratings (Brier-based), event chain linking (lifecycle stages), mega-chain consolidation
4. **Multi-Agent Analysis**: Eleven specialized analysts assess signals in parallel:
   - Geopolitician Hawk/Dove (conflicts vs diplomacy)
   - Economist Bull/Bear (growth vs risk)
   - Political Hawk/Dove (power realism vs institutions)
   - Technologist (AI, semiconductors, energy, biotech)
   - Sociologist (demographics, migration, social dynamics)
   - Climatologist (climate risks, environment, energy transition)
   - Military Analyst (force balance, deterrence, arms trade)
   - Cybersecurity Analyst (APT groups, infrastructure attacks)
5. **Skeptic Review**: Independent adversarial critic with web search fact-checking (Tavily), veto power, media bias detection
6. **Seldon Arbiter**: ReACT mode (Reasoning + Acting) with 6 tools — synthesizes top forecasts, assigns calibrated probabilities (5%-95%), detects Seldon Crises and cascade narratives
7. **Bayesian Updates**: Probabilities updated every 6 hours using likelihood ratio method
8. **Accuracy Tracking**: Brier Score measures calibration; per-agent accuracy feeds back into weights and prompts
9. **Seldon Plan**: Monthly long-term (1-10 year) structural forecasting with master scenarios and critical junctures
10. **The Mule**: Weekly contrarian analysis — conspiratorial meta-analysis exploring hidden connections, cui bono, and alternative interpretations using 5 investigative tools

## Key Features

- Forecasts range from short-term (1-7 days) to century-scale (30-100 years)
- Five Pillars framework: Game Theory, Bayesian reasoning, Systems Dynamics, Historical Analogy, Network Analysis
- 11 dual-persona analysts with cognitive diversity (Hawk/Dove, Bull/Bear pairs)
- Seldon Crisis detection for high-probability critical events confirmed by 2+ analysts
- Cascade Narratives: causal chains between related forecasts with quantum interference
- Knowledge Graph: signal clustering, source ratings, event chains, mega-chain consolidation
- The Mule: weekly alternative analysis with absurdity index and cui bono
- Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
- Historical analogy matching via RAG (pgvector)
- Full bilingual support (English and Russian)
- Real-time updates via Server-Sent Events (SSE)

## Pages

- https://seldonvault.io/ — Daily forecast digest
- https://seldonvault.io/forecasts — Browse all forecasts with filters (status, sector, date, probability range)
- https://seldonvault.io/narratives — Cascade narratives (causal chains between forecasts)
- https://seldonvault.io/map — Interactive world map with regional risk data
- https://seldonvault.io/seldon-plan — Monthly long-term structural forecasts (1-10 year scenarios)
- https://seldonvault.io/mule — Weekly contrarian analysis (The Mule)
- https://seldonvault.io/about — About Seldon Vault (FAQ format)
- https://seldonvault.io/methodology — How the multi-agent pipeline works (15-step process)
- https://seldonvault.io/developers — API documentation with examples

## API

Free, public, read-only REST API. No authentication required. JSON responses.

Base URL: https://seldonvault.io/api/v1/

### Endpoints

- GET /api/v1/forecasts/daily — Today's forecast digest
- GET /api/v1/forecasts — Browse all forecasts with filters (status, sector, search, date_from, date_to, prob_min, prob_max, page, per_page)
- GET /api/v1/forecasts/{id} — Full forecast detail with agent analyses, Skeptic review, historical analogies
- GET /api/v1/forecasts/{id}/updates — Probability update history (Bayesian updates over time)
- GET /api/v1/metrics — Aggregated accuracy metrics (total, resolved, avg Brier score, by sector, by agent)
- GET /api/v1/metrics/calibration — Calibration curve data
- GET /api/v1/regions — Regional risk summaries (active count, avg probability, top sector)
- GET /api/v1/regions/{region}/forecasts — Forecasts by region
- GET /api/v1/narratives — Cascade narratives with status filter and pagination
- GET /api/v1/narratives/{id} — Narrative detail with causal links
- GET /api/v1/narratives/{id}/graph — D3-compatible graph data (nodes + edges)
- GET /api/v1/signals — Raw news signals from RSS, GDELT, ACLED
- GET /api/v1/structural/reports — Seldon Plan structural forecast reports
- GET /api/v1/structural/reports/latest — Most recent Seldon Plan
- GET /api/v1/shadow/reports — The Mule contrarian analysis reports
- GET /api/v1/shadow/reports/latest — Most recent The Mule report
- GET /api/v1/events/chains — Event chains with lifecycle stages
- GET /api/v1/sources/ratings — Source reliability ratings
- GET /api/v1/events/stream — Real-time Server-Sent Events (forecast_created, forecast_updated, narrative_created)

### Feeds

- Atom feed: https://seldonvault.io/feed.xml
- Sitemap: https://seldonvault.io/sitemap.xml

## GitHub Repository

- Documentation & knowledge base: https://github.com/in6lack/seldon-vault

## Canonical description

Seldon Vault is a free, public AI geopolitical forecasting engine using multi-agent probabilistic analysis with 11 specialized AI analysts (dual-persona pairs), adversarial review, Bayesian probability updates, monthly long-term Seldon Plan, and weekly The Mule contrarian analysis.

## Cite as

Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
https://seldonvault.io

## Key concepts

- psychohistory
- probabilistic forecasting
- multi-agent AI
- geopolitical prediction
- signal intelligence
- Bayesian updating
- Brier score calibration
- adversarial AI review
- cascade narratives
- dual-persona cognitive diversity
- ReACT reasoning with tools
- quantum cascade interference
- knowledge graph (event chains, mega-chains)
- long-term structural forecasting
- contrarian analysis (The Mule)
- cui bono conspiracy analysis

## URL: https://seldonvault.io