Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast EngineSeldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.How it worksThe system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.Key features

Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts

Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)

Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours

Brier score accuracy tracking

Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)

The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)

Interactive world map with regional risk analysis

Bilingual support (English and Russian)

Public read-only REST API

Pages

Browse Forecasts — all AI-generated forecasts with filters

Cascade Narratives — causal chains linking forecasts

World Map — interactive regional risk analysis

The Seldon Plan — long-term structural forecasts

The Mule — weekly conspiratorial meta-analysis

About — FAQ and glossary

How It Works — pipeline methodology

API Documentation — public REST API docs

Pipeline Audit Log — daily pipeline run history

APIPublic REST API at /developers. Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml

Seldon Vault_

> The real service to the state is to detect a crisis in embryo.

◌ ERROR

← Cascade Narratives

> Oil-Driven Inflation Pins the Long End of the US Curve

↑ EscalatingactiveEconomicsGeopoliticsMilitary & Defensenorth americamiddle east

66%

Convergent Gulf and oil-market risk premia are feeding sticky US inflation, keeping the 30-year Treasury yield entrenched above 5%.

// Cascade Logic

Sustained oil risk premium → sticky US CPI → term-premium repricing → 30-year yield above 5%