The Russia-Ukraine mega-story dominates the outlook as the Kremlin steers toward its September 20 Duma vote — managing manpower covertly rather than by decree, tightening pre-election repression, and lining up another wartime tax hike — while a stray Russian missile tests NATO's firebreak in Poland. In a notable contrarian call, a deflating Israel-Iran war premium (Brent back near $90) makes a $115 oil settlement unlikely, cutting against analyst consensus.

This is a high-conviction trend forecast supported by a concrete signal cluster, not isolated incidents: the in-absentia arrest warrant for Zhanna Nemtsova, an FSB espionage arrest in Nizhny Novgorod, and court confiscation of 123 Jehovah's Witness properties — all within weeks of the fixed election date. The Russia-Ukraine mega-chain is in ESCALATION, and the 'Authoritarian Consolidation' interpretation is a leading scenario across Russia-domestic chains. The Skeptic passed at 0.77 but flagged loose resolution criteria; the proposal's own indicators (5+ new cases, 3+ designations, candidate deregistration) are measurable and historically almost always met before Russian federal votes. Geopolitics is a sector where I underpredict (by 16pp), so I nudge to 0.80. Psychohistory and information-control pillars both confirm.