← Cascade Narratives
> Iran Regime Resilience Locks US Monetary Policy
↑ EscalatingactiveGeopoliticsEconomicsmiddle eastnorth america
72%
Iran's regime surviving the air campaign ensures the conflict becomes protracted, sustaining Gulf oil disruption that feeds US inflation and forces the Fed to hold rates through mid-2026.
// Cascade Logic
Regime survival → continued retaliatory capacity → Gulf oil strikes → Brent >$120 → US CPI >3% → Fed holds rates through June
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
enablesstrength: 70%shift: 10%
Regime survival preserves Iran's command-and-control and missile/drone capability, enabling continued retaliatory strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure.
triggersstrength: 85%shift: 15%
A strike on major Gulf oil infrastructure directly removes supply from the market and triggers panic pricing in already tight conditions.
causesstrength: 75%shift: 12%
Sustained high oil prices flow through transportation, manufacturing, and food production costs with a 4-8 week lag into consumer prices.