Iranian regime will survive US-Israeli air campaign without collapse within 90 days
Despite three weeks of sustained US-Israeli strikes, the killing of senior figures including Larijani and intelligence chief Khatib, and 63 waves of retaliatory exchanges, US intelligence assesses the Iranian regime as 'intact but degraded.' Without a ground invasion — which the Pentagon itself describes as 'suicidal' — the air campaign will not produce regime change. Iran retains Hormuz leverage and is signaling conditions for negotiated exit.
The US-Iran war dominates today's outlook: Tehran's regime will survive the air campaign, but the conflict is driving a cascade of second-order crises — Fed policy paralysis, Middle East humanitarian collapse, and a global energy supply shock — while Russia quietly advances sovereign AI legislation in the shadow of the conflict.