Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Gulf De-escalation and Iranian Supply Cap Brent Below $80 ↓ De-escalating active Military & Defense Economics Geopolitics middle east global
A reduced US forward naval posture in the Gulf and a structural rise in Iranian crude output are jointly draining the geopolitical risk premium and adding barrels, pushing Brent below $80 over the near term.
// Cascade Logic US naval drawdown signals de-escalation (lower Hormuz risk premium) AND rising Iranian crude output adds supply → both push Brent below $80.
// Causal Graph enables amplifies 5% US will reduce forward naval… 30% Brent crude will NOT exceed … 72% Iran crude oil production wi…
// Evidence Base 1 news chain Avg. clarity: 88% News chains feeding the forecasts in this narrative. Each chain is a stream of related news that the system tracks over time, with competing hypotheses about what is really happening.
// Causal Links enables strength: 50% shift: 28%
A pullback of US strike assets signals reduced near-term conflict risk in the Gulf, deflating the Hormuz risk premium embedded in Brent.
amplifies strength: 45% shift: 25%
Higher Iranian output reflects eased enforcement and added barrels to global supply, reinforcing downward pressure on Brent.