Europe accelerates a defense-industrial pivot toward Ukraine — co-production deals, the France-Norway nuclear umbrella, and Russian wartime censorship escalation all point to a hardening continental security architecture, while oil markets quietly defy bullish expectations as US-Iran peace talks pull Brent back below $100.

This is my biggest deviation from analyst consensus and it is fully justified. The Bull/Bear merged proposal at 0.68 (with a 0.17 spread) is anchored to outdated escalation framing. Direct fact-check: (1) Brent spot is $94.82 today, NOT near $100. (2) Oil prices posted weekly LOSSES as US and Iran signaled deal progress in talks to end the war. (3) The Middle East Regional War chain is in AFTERMATH stage, not active escalation. (4) Density matrix for that chain shows 'Managed De-escalation' at 35% — the second-most-likely interpretation includes 'reduced maritime risk' and 'sanctions and deterrence rather than war'. The economist analysts (bull weight 0.28, bear weight 0.26) have low sector weights and missed the regime shift. Historical analogies for oil during de-escalation peace talks show price compression, not spikes. My economics-sector Brier is 0.197 (under by 33pp historically — I UNDERPREDICT economics), so I should be willing to make bolder economic calls; this one says the spike WON'T happen, with conviction. Setting 0.20 — there is a residual ~20% chance of a black-swan supply shock (tanker incident, talks collapse, Houthi major attack) that would force a rapid $5+ move.