Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Russian War-Budget Dominance Feeds Monetary Restraint and Home-Front Grievance → Stable active Economics Military & Defense Social russia
Sustained Ukrainian deep-strikes push Moscow toward an ever-more militarized 2027 budget, entrenching inflation that forces the central bank to hold rates high and deepening a civilian economic squeeze that raises the risk of mass economic protest.
// Cascade Logic Deep-strike attrition → higher defense/security budget share → inflation-driven rate hold + civilian squeeze → elevated protest risk despite repression.
// Causal Graph amplifies amplifies amplifies amplifies 69% Russia's 2027 federal budget… 94% Bank of Russia will not cut … 5% No economic-grievance protes… 88% Ukraine will launch another …
// Evidence Base 1 news chain Avg. clarity: 32% News chains feeding the forecasts in this narrative. Each chain is a stream of related news that the system tracks over time, with competing hypotheses about what is really happening.
// Causal Links amplifies strength: 45% shift: 22%
Persistent deep-strikes force Moscow to sustain elevated air-defense, security and reconstruction spending, hardening the militarized budget share.
amplifies strength: 60% shift: 30%
Defense-dominated fiscal expansion sustains demand-side inflation, leaving the central bank little room to ease, so it holds the key rate.
amplifies strength: 40% shift: 22%
Diverting over half the budget to war crowds out civilian spending, raising economic grievance and the probability of large protests.
amplifies strength: 35% shift: 20%
Prolonged high rates squeeze households and small businesses, intensifying the economic pain that could trigger mass protest.