Russia's Black Sea shift from battlefield attrition to sinking merchant ships dominates today's outlook — with further vessel and port strikes highly likely (0.85) and Europe poised for diplomatic and sanctions retaliation — while Ukraine keeps hammering Moscow's airports and the AI buildout accelerates as Nvidia's near-confirmed multibillion-dollar bet on Safe Superintelligence deepens frontier-compute concentration.

The military analyst rates this 0.76 (GPT 0.84, Claude 0.88); this is my strongest personal sector (Brier 0.158), so I trust the direction. Zelensky's profile (BVI 4, very high risk tolerance, 'fait accompli' pattern) plus his stated 40-day 'Compelling Peace' operation and claims of ~1,000 rear-area targets indicate a doctrine of sustained homeland-cost imposition rather than isolated retaliation — Ukraine cannot match Russian mass conventionally, so forcing air-defense diversion is the rational move (game theory / force balance). The chain's dominant interpretation puts increased long-range strikes at 95%. The Skeptic correctly noted the evidence supports continued strikes more strongly than the SPECIFIC 21-day Moscow-airport-disruption outcome, so I trim from the analyst's high end to 0.80 rather than 0.86. Recent Moscow-area civil-aviation suspensions during Ukrainian waves give this a solid recent base rate.