OPEC's sustained sub-21 mbpd output through June, layered onto chronic Hormuz risk and a multilateral naval coalition forming in response, compresses global crude availability just as European jet fuel inventories slide below the IEA 23-day shortage threshold — converging supply-side and geopolitical pressures into a summer fuel crisis.
// Cascade Logic
OPEC underproduction + Hormuz threat tempo → tight crude → European jet fuel drawdown below buffer → emergency European energy posture and naval coalition formation.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
causesstrength: 65%shift: 35%
Sustained OPEC underproduction tightens global crude and middle-distillate slates, directly accelerating European jet fuel inventory drawdown toward the shortage threshold.