Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Russia-Iran Missile-Tech Axis Draws Western Sanctions and Cyber Blowback ↑ Escalating active Geopolitics Technology Cybersecurity Military & Defense middle east europe russia
Deepening Russia-Iran military-technology cooperation is triggering a Western enforcement wave — export controls plus banking and network sanctions — which in turn invites attributed cyber retaliation against Middle East maritime and defense targets.
// Cascade Logic Dual-use export controls + Iran banking sanctions → allied sanctions on Russia-Iran naval missile-tech network → attributed cyber retaliation against Gulf maritime/defense targets
// Causal Graph triggers amplifies amplifies amplifies 88% US will announce new banking… 67% US and allies publicly sanct… 72% Publicly attributed Russia/I… 72% EU or Germany tightens expor… // Causal Links triggers strength: 55% shift: 30%
Public sanctioning of the network raises the incentive for asymmetric cyber retaliation against exposed Gulf maritime and defense infrastructure.
amplifies strength: 42% shift: 22%
Component chokepoints push Russia-Iran toward disruptive cyber options as a lower-cost coercive lever, raising incident probability.
amplifies strength: 65% shift: 30%
Tightened export controls generate the intelligence and interdiction record that feeds formal listing of the Russia-Iran missile-tech network.
amplifies strength: 60% shift: 30%
Fresh Iran banking sanctions extend enforcement momentum and financial-tracking infrastructure toward the naval missile-tech network.