Persistent Hormuz disruption is driving a dual-track shock: Brent crude spiking above $120 as crude transit collapses, while Saudi Arabia switches to fuel-oil burning for summer power as gas imports get squeezed — each effect amplifying the other.
// Cascade Logic
Hormuz closure → gas import disruption forces Saudi fuel-oil burn → less crude available for export → amplifies Brent spike → feeds into sticky US CPI and Asian fuel stress.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
amplifiesstrength: 55%shift: 25%
Saudi diverting crude/fuel oil to domestic summer power generation reduces export availability into an already supply-stressed global market, compounding the Hormuz-driven price spike.