Question 1

What is Seldon Vault?

Accepted Answer

Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking capabilities, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts across geopolitics, economics, technology, social dynamics, military affairs, cybersecurity, and climate.

Question 2

How does Seldon Vault work?

Accepted Answer

Seldon Vault collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, and ACLED, processes them through 7 specialized AI analysts in parallel, subjects proposals to adversarial Skeptic review with fact-checking, synthesizes top forecasts via the Seldon Arbiter, and continuously updates probabilities using Bayesian inference every 6 hours.

Question 3

How accurate is Seldon Vault?

Accepted Answer

Every resolved forecast is scored using Brier Score — a mathematical measure of calibration where 0.0 is perfect and 0.25 is random chance. Calibration curves and per-sector accuracy metrics are publicly available. Per-agent accuracy is tracked to continuously improve calibration.

Question 4

Is Seldon Vault free?

Accepted Answer

Yes. All forecasts are free, public, and require no registration. Seldon Vault also provides a free, public read-only REST API for programmatic access to forecasts, metrics, and real-time events.

Question 5

What makes Seldon Vault different from prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Unlike prediction markets (Polymarket, Metaculus) that aggregate human bets, Seldon Vault uses an ensemble of specialized AI agents that independently analyze signals and debate through an adversarial review process. Every forecast includes transparent reasoning from each agent, a Skeptic's critique with fact-checks, and Bayesian probability updates.

Seldon Vault_

> US Tech Containment Provokes Cross-Strait Military Signaling

// Cascade Logic

// Causal Graph

// Evidence Base

// Causal Links