Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Russian Fuel-and-Grain Squeeze Ignites Southern Home-Front Unrest ↑ Escalating active Military & Defense Economics Social russia
Ukrainian refinery strikes are forcing Russia to extend diesel export bans, which combined with grain-logistics disruption raises the risk of trucker and farmer protests in southern Russia.
// Cascade Logic Refinery strikes → diesel export restrictions → domestic fuel scarcity + grain-logistics strain → localized trucker/farmer protests
// Causal Graph amplifies amplifies 60% Ukraine's September grain ex… 82% Russia will extend its diese… 28% Fuel and grain disruptions w… // Causal Links amplifies strength: 32% shift: 22%
Black Sea grain-logistics turbulence spills into congested southern Russian export corridors, compounding farmer grievances alongside fuel stress.
amplifies strength: 50% shift: 30%
Export bans signal and often accompany domestic diesel scarcity at the pump, hitting truckers and agricultural operators in southern regions.