Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Reciprocal Deep-Strike Cycle Compounds Russian Fuel Crisis and Home-Front Repression ↑ Escalating active Military & Defense Economics Social russia ukraine
Ukraine's sustained deep-strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure is provoking Russian retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian rear logistics while simultaneously intensifying domestic information control as war strain mounts on the home front.
// Cascade Logic Ukrainian deep-strike fuel disruption → Russian retaliatory logistics strikes + rising home-front strain → intensified journalist prosecution / information lockdown
// Causal Graph amplifies amplifies 80% Ukrainian deep-strike campai… 80% Russia strikes a major Ukrai… 67% Russia opens criminal cases … // Causal Links amplifies strength: 55% shift: 25%
A sustained Ukrainian deep-strike campaign hitting fuel nodes intensifies pressure for Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian rear-area logistics, escalating the reciprocal strike cycle.
amplifies strength: 45% shift: 22%
Deepening fuel disruption and visible war strain heighten the Kremlin's incentive to suppress independent reporting on casualties and home-front hardship, driving journalist prosecutions.