> Iran Blockade Sustains the Gulf Oil Premium and Pins the US Long End
↑ EscalatingactiveGeopoliticsEconomicsmiddle eastnorth america
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US formalization of a naval blockade and economic coercion against Iran keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil, feeding sticky inflation expectations that hold long-dated US Treasury yields elevated.
// Cascade Logic
US naval blockade / economic coercion on Iran → sustained Gulf oil risk premium and supply-disruption fear → sticky headline inflation → elevated 30-year US Treasury yields.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
amplifiesstrength: 42%shift: 22%
A durable blockade and coercion posture keeps an oil supply-disruption premium in energy markets, sustaining headline inflation and term-premium pressure that keep the long end of the US curve elevated.