Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > US Strike Inside Iran Reignites Nuclear Collapse and Cyber-Oil Risk ↑ Escalating active Military & Defense Geopolitics Cybersecurity middle east north america europe
A US strike on Iranian territory would collapse nuclear diplomacy, trigger further kinetic exchanges and Gulf reinforcement, and invite Iranian cyber retaliation.
// Cascade Logic US strike inside Iran → nuclear talks collapse + additional Gulf kinetic strikes + Gulf reinforcement → Iranian APT cyber retaliation
// Causal Graph triggers enables amplifies 82% US-Iran nuclear negotiations… 30% The United States will condu… 70% Iranian APT conducts additio… 75% US conducts at least one add… // Causal Links triggers strength: 55% shift: 32%
A direct strike on Iranian soil would foreclose any diplomatic track, collapsing the nuclear negotiations.
enables strength: 40% shift: 22%
Kinetic escalation motivates Iranian state cyber retaliation against Western partners' critical infrastructure.
amplifies strength: 50% shift: 30%
An initial territorial strike raises the probability of a broader kinetic exchange against Iranian Gulf assets.