Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Red Sea Strikes and Russian Fuel Curbs Sustain European Inflation and Bund Yields → Stable active Military & Defense Geopolitics Economics middle east europe russia
US strikes on the Houthis and extended Russian fuel-export restrictions both tighten global energy and freight supply, feeding euro-area inflation and keeping German long-term yields above 3%.
// Cascade Logic Houthi strike campaign + Russian fuel-export curbs → higher energy/freight costs → sticky euro-area inflation → German 10Y Bund yield stays above 3%
// Causal Graph amplifies amplifies 90% Russia will extend at least … 66% US forces will conduct direc… 71% German 10-year Bund yield wi… // Causal Links amplifies strength: 40% shift: 22%
US-Houthi kinetic escalation disrupts Red Sea shipping, raising freight and energy costs that feed into euro-area inflation, keeping the ECB restrictive and sustaining elevated Bund yields.
amplifies strength: 42% shift: 23%
Extended Russian fuel-export curbs tighten global diesel and refined-product supply, lifting European fuel prices and reinforcing inflation pressure that holds long-term German yields above 3%.