Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 8 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 8 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, political analyst, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. A forecast's probability is set at publication; accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (8 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > US-Russia Settlement Channel Opens the Path to a Trilateral Framework and Sanctions-Relief Bargaining ↑ Escalating active Geopolitics Economics Military & Defense north america russia europe
In-person talks between senior US and Russian officials on a Ukraine settlement are the prerequisite for a Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit and a US-brokered framework. The framework is the weak link. If it lands, it would set off both ceasefire implementation and material sanctions relief as the price of Russian compliance.
// Cascade Logic US-Russia settlement meeting → trilateral summit and framework agreement → formal ceasefire + sanctions relief
// Causal Graph enables enables causes triggers 76% Senior US and Russian offici… 10% U.S. or EU grants material s… 11% U.S.-brokered trilateral Rus… 95% Trump, Putin and Zelensky ho… 70% Russia and Ukraine reach a f…
// Evidence Base 1 news chain Avg. clarity: 28% News chains feeding the forecasts in this narrative. Each chain is a stream of related news that the system tracks over time, with competing hypotheses about what is really happening.
// Causal Links enables strength: 45% shift: 25%
Direct US-Russia bargaining is the channel through which framework text would be negotiated before being presented to Kyiv.
enables strength: 60% shift: 30%
Senior-official meetings do the preparatory negotiation and agenda-setting without which a leaders' trilateral summit is unlikely to be convened.
causes strength: 60% shift: 40%
Phased sanctions relief is Moscow's core demand in any framework. Agreement would directly trigger at least partial US relief.
triggers strength: 70% shift: 40%
A signed framework would set the timetable and terms for a formal ceasefire, making an armistice the immediate next step.