Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Reciprocal Energy-Strike War Entrenches Dual Grid and Fuel Crises ↑ Escalating active Military & Defense Economics Geopolitics europe russia
The failure of any sustained truce locks in a mutually reinforcing cycle of energy-infrastructure strikes, deepening both Ukraine's grid siege and Russia's domestic fuel crisis.
// Cascade Logic Ukrainian refinery deep strikes → sustained reciprocal energy-strike cycle → Russian fuel-market controls + Ukrainian scheduled power cuts + Russian mass strikes on Ukrainian grid
// Causal Graph amplifies causes amplifies amplifies 95% Russia announces new adminis… 82% Russia and Ukraine will cont… 95% Ukraine will conduct another… 95% Ukraine will impose schedule… 95% Russia will launch a large-s…
// Evidence Base 1 news chain Avg. clarity: 27% News chains feeding the forecasts in this narrative. Each chain is a stream of related news that the system tracks over time, with competing hypotheses about what is really happening.
// Causal Links amplifies strength: 50% shift: 28%
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries within the reciprocal cycle drive fuel shortages, forcing Moscow into administrative market controls.
causes strength: 70% shift: 35%
The persistent strike cycle directly manifests as large-scale Russian campaigns against Ukraine's power system ahead of winter.
amplifies strength: 55% shift: 30%
Sustained Russian strikes on generation and transmission force rolling blackouts across multiple oblasts.
amplifies strength: 60% shift: 30%
Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and airfields invite retaliation, sustaining the reciprocal strike tempo and blocking any truce.