Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > State-Linked AI Misuse Drives Frontier Lab Hardening and Biosecurity Screening ↑ Escalating active Cybersecurity Technology north america europe
A fresh wave of state-linked AI-agent cyber operations against Western and defense targets is forcing frontier labs to lock down model access and pushing US/EU regulators toward formal AI-biosecurity screening rules.
// Cascade Logic Repeated AI-agent cyber campaigns → public attribution → frontier labs harden access controls → regulators propose AI-biosecurity screening as parallel governance response.
// Causal Graph amplifies triggers 68% US or EU formally proposes A… 71% At least two top-five fronti… 72% A second state-linked AI-age… // Causal Links amplifies strength: 55% shift: 30%
Evidence of AI agents being weaponized by state actors broadens the perceived threat surface to include bio-design misuse, accelerating regulatory screening proposals.
triggers strength: 70% shift: 42%
A second disclosed AI-agent campaign creates direct commercial and reputational pressure on top labs to demonstrably restrict state-linked misuse of their models.