A sustained US-UK naval mine-clearance and deterrence presence in the Strait of Hormuz caps the Iranian coercion risk premium, constraining the probability of Brent averaging above $100 over the next month.
// Cascade Logic
Sustained allied naval presence in Hormuz → reduces probability of effective Iranian closure or tanker disruption → caps oil risk premium → keeps Brent from sustaining a >$100 monthly average.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
enablesstrength: 55%shift: 25%
Visible allied mine-clearance and escort posture in Hormuz reduces tail-risk pricing of a closure scenario, dampening speculative bid into Brent and making sub-$100 monthly averages more likely.