Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Post-Duma Election-Security Crackdown Contains Protest Risk ↑ Escalating active Geopolitics Social russia
Following the GAS Vybory 2.0 leak, Russia launches an election-security crackdown with further leak fallout, which — combined with prosecutions — suppresses any sustained multi-city protest wave.
// Cascade Logic Leak-driven crackdown + expanded prosecutions → deterrence of mobilization → contained election aftermath.
// Causal Graph causes amplifies 83% Russia's Duma election after… 71% Russia will open an election… 93% Russia widens treason/extrem… // Causal Links causes strength: 60% shift: 35%
An intensified security crackdown raises the cost of protest participation, keeping post-election unrest fragmented and contained.
amplifies strength: 55% shift: 30%
The election-security push feeds directly into broader treason/extremism prosecutions targeting digital dissent networks.