A tentative US-Iran-Oman arrangement on Strait of Hormuz transit, combined with rising Gulf output, is suppressing the oil risk premium and keeping Brent from breaking above $90 through August.
// Cascade Logic
Hormuz transit deal removes tail-risk of blockade → risk premium deflates; parallel UAE production surge adds supply → both push Brent below the $90 weekly-close threshold.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
causesstrength: 60%shift: 35%
An interim transit understanding lowers the probability of a Hormuz closure, deflating the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude and holding Brent below $90.