Chinese EV market capture and collapsing industrial output are driving mass German auto job cuts, which simultaneously push labor toward open-ended strikes and force EU retreat on the 2035 ICE phase-out.
// Cascade Logic
Chinese EV penetration + industrial contraction → German auto job cuts → (fork) IG Metall open-ended strikes AND political pressure diluting the EU 2035 ICE ban.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
amplifiesstrength: 55%shift: 28%
Chinese share gains erode legacy German OEM volumes and margins, accelerating restructuring and layoffs.
amplifiesstrength: 55%shift: 30%
Broad industrial contraction deepens overcapacity in autos and supplier networks, forcing headcount reductions.
triggersstrength: 50%shift: 35%
Mass layoff announcements are the tipping point that converts warning actions into sustained open-ended industrial action.
enablesstrength: 45%shift: 25%
Employment shock generates political pressure to soften decarbonization timelines that threaten combustion-engine jobs.