Three independent external shocks are hitting a lira that is already sliding: US long-end yields above 5.2%, a likely December Fed hike, and a persistent Hormuz oil risk premium. Together they drain carry inflows and widen Turkey's energy-import bill.
// Cascade Logic
US 10Y ≥5.20% + Fed December hike (tighter global dollar funding) + Hormuz tanker attacks (oil import bill) → capital outflow and current-account strain → lira past 50/USD
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
amplifiesstrength: 50%shift: 30%
Higher US long-end yields narrow the real-rate advantage behind lira carry trades. That triggers portfolio outflows from Turkish assets and speeds up the managed depreciation.
amplifiesstrength: 45%shift: 25%
A Fed hike strengthens the dollar and tightens global dollar funding. Emerging-market currencies with high external financing needs, like Turkey's, are the most exposed.
amplifiesstrength: 40%shift: 25%
Tanker attacks sustain the oil and gas risk premium. Turkey imports nearly all of its energy, so this widens its current-account deficit and drains central-bank FX reserves defending the lira.