← Cascade Narratives
> US-China Tech-Strategic Decoupling Spiral
→ StableactiveGeopoliticsEconomicsTechnologyeast asianorth america
71%
Chinese military provocations near Taiwan and escalatory US trade posture reinforce semiconductor export controls, locking in chip decoupling.
// Cascade Logic
Taiwan military exercises + US-China tariffs → political lock-in of export controls → NVIDIA restrictions sustained
// Causal Graph
// Evidence Base
2 news chainsAvg. clarity: 43%News chains feeding the forecasts in this narrative. Each chain is a stream of related news that the system tracks over time, with competing hypotheses about what is really happening.
China and great power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific
309 signals/44dDe-escalation49%
Leading scenario:strategic containment escalation65%(+2)
→ NVIDIA will not resume unrestricted H20-class AI chip shipments to China within 180 daysTrump Administration and U.S. Domestic Policy
520 signals/44dDevelopment37%
Leading scenario:electoral strategy45%(+2)
→ US will impose new tariffs on China and/or the EU within 90 days// Causal Links
amplifiesstrength: 60%shift: 50%
PLA exercises near Taiwan harden Congressional and White House resolve to maintain semiconductor export controls, making relaxation politically impossible.
amplifiesstrength: 50%shift: 50%
New tariffs signal escalatory trade posture that makes simultaneously loosening chip export controls contradictory and untenable.