> Gulf Risk Premium Funnels Into Sticky US CPI Above 3.5%
↑ EscalatingactiveEconomicsGeopoliticsMilitary & Defensenorth americamiddle east
70%
Multiple independent Gulf/Iran pressure channels — sustained Hormuz risk premium, Iran regime resilience, and oil shock pass-through — converge on a single macro outcome: US headline inflation staying stuck at or above 3.5% YoY in May 2026, locking the Fed.
// Cascade Logic
Gulf kinetic escalation + Iran maritime coercion → sustained Brent risk premium → energy and goods pass-through → US CPI prints hot → Fed monetary policy locked.