A North Korean ICBM launch or nuclear test further degrades the global nonproliferation regime, lowering the political threshold for forward NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements such as a prospective US-Lithuania deal.
// Cascade Logic
DPRK ICBM/nuclear test → weakened nonproliferation norm and heightened extended-deterrence anxiety → political opening for US-Lithuania nuclear-sharing
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
enablesstrength: 35%shift: 22%
DPRK testing signals continued nonproliferation breakdown and raises extended-deterrence demand among frontline NATO states, marginally lowering the political barrier to a US-Lithuania nuclear-sharing arrangement.