Russia's 2027 budget locks in at least 16 trillion rubles for defense while the economy slides toward technical recession and non-defense revenues shrink. The social-policy line is the main residual that gets cut.
// Cascade Logic
Record defense allocation (crowding out) + technical recession (revenue shortfall) → social-policy spending cut ≥5% below 2026 plan
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
causesstrength: 70%shift: 40%
Under fiscal rules and limited borrowing capacity, a record defense line mechanically crowds out other spending. Social policy is the largest discretionary civilian item available to cut.
amplifiesstrength: 50%shift: 30%
A contracting economy erodes tax and oil-and-gas revenue projections. This forces the Finance Ministry to deepen civilian cuts to hold the deficit target while protecting defense.