Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > Refinery-Strike Diesel Squeeze Ignites French Fuel Revolt ↑ Escalating active Military & Defense Economics Social russia europe
Sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity and depressed throughput are draining European refined-product supply, driving a sharp diesel price spike that spills into French street politics.
// Cascade Logic Russian refinery throughput collapse → European diesel/refined-product price spike → French cost-of-living fuel protests and broader EU energy-price unrest
// Causal Graph amplifies triggers amplifies causes 73% France stages a nationwide c… 70% European diesel/refined-prod… 39% Energy-price protests exceed… 76% At least 4 of the next 5 EIA… 95% Russian oil refining through… // Causal Links amplifies strength: 50% shift: 28%
A pan-European refined-product spike raises the probability of coordinated cost-of-living unrest beyond France.
triggers strength: 60% shift: 35%
Fuel price shocks have historically been the tipping point for mass French cost-of-living mobilization (yellow-vest dynamic).
amplifies strength: 45% shift: 25%
Low transatlantic distillate inventories limit arbitrage relief into Europe, compounding upward price pressure.
causes strength: 58% shift: 30%
Reduced Russian refining and export volumes tighten global diesel balances, pushing European refined-product prices sharply higher.