> AfD Ascendancy Provokes Mass Counter-Mobilization
↑ EscalatingactiveSocialGeopoliticseurope
60%
Continued AfD electoral gains and record-high polling trigger large anti-AfD street mobilizations, which in turn sustain political pressure toward a formal party-ban application.
// Cascade Logic
AfD electoral win + record polling → mass counter-protests → political momentum for a ban application.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
triggersstrength: 50%shift: 30%
A concrete AfD electoral victory galvanizes civil-society opponents into large-scale counter-demonstrations.
amplifiesstrength: 50%shift: 28%
Record-high national polling for the AfD intensifies alarm among opponents, boosting turnout at counter-protests.
enablesstrength: 35%shift: 22%
Sustained mass mobilization creates public and political pressure that lowers the bar for institutional actors to pursue a formal ban application.