> Iran Nuclear Test Risk Compounds Nonproliferation Fracture
↑ EscalatingactiveMilitary & DefenseGeopoliticsEconomicsmiddle east
82%
The very high implied probability of an Iranian nuclear test within 90 days (94%) directly reinforces the nuclear siege economic mobilization scenario and the nonproliferation regime breakdown driven by persistent Hormuz closure.
// Cascade Logic
Iran moves from threshold posture to overt test → triggers economic mobilization, secondary sanctions on Chinese enablers, and US force posture shift → nonproliferation regime cracks.