Tightening civilian movement, fuel, and filming controls in border and occupied regions raises the policing baseline that, combined with existing Victory Day-era repression apparatus, makes mass anti-war mobilization structurally impossible within the 12-month horizon. The repressive infrastructure is the binding constraint on dissent visibility.
// Cascade Logic
Border/movement controls → reduced opportunity for protest coordination → no mass anti-war mobilization → war continuation politically unconstrained domestically.
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
causesstrength: 75%shift: 35%
Tightened movement and filming controls strip dissenters of coordination infrastructure (gathering venues, documentation pipelines), making large-scale mobilization logistically infeasible.
enablesstrength: 50%shift: 22%
Absence of credible mass mobilization threat enables the regime to extend repressive measures with minimal political cost, creating a self-reinforcing suppression cycle.