Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
← Cascade Narratives > AI-Weaponized Credential Theft Triggers Regulatory Cyber Warnings ↑ Escalating active Cybersecurity Technology europe north america russia
An expanding AI-assisted credential-theft campaign against Western firms, combined with Russian disruptive cyber operations, is forcing major cyber agencies to formally warn about the abuse of AI coding-agents.
// Cascade Logic AI-assisted Cursor credential theft expands → regulatory alarm → formal agency warning; Russian disruptive cyber ops amplify the threat picture.
// Causal Graph amplifies triggers 75% Major cyber agency issues fo… 78% AI-assisted Russian-speaking… 70% Russia pairs Ukraine strikes… // Causal Links amplifies strength: 45% shift: 22%
Concurrent Russian disruptive cyber operations against civilian networks raise the overall threat salience, reinforcing the case for a formal regulatory warning.
triggers strength: 65% shift: 35%
A widening AI-assisted credential-theft campaign against Western companies is precisely the pattern that pushes national cyber agencies to publish formal advisories on AI coding-agent abuse.