Continued war with no ceasefire and steady manpower attrition keeps upward pressure on the Kremlin to issue a new nationwide mobilization decree, though political caution keeps the probability contained.
// Cascade Logic
No ceasefire → persistent manpower demand → expanded eligibility measures → tail risk of a formal new mobilization decree
// Causal Graph
// Causal Links
amplifiesstrength: 40%shift: 22%
Incremental eligibility expansion is a precursor step that raises the likelihood of a formal nationwide mobilization order.
enablesstrength: 40%shift: 22%
Continued high-intensity fighting sustains the manpower demand that could ultimately force a formal mobilization decree.