Russia's war economy strains under a widening fuel crisis — rationing across nearly all regions and refinery attrition forcing broader controls — while century-low EU trade cements decoupling; Iran-related fronts stay contained on the US axis even as the regional war simmers, and drone warfare escalation drives defense-tech procurement on both sides.

This is a low-base-rate forecast and I keep it low. Publicly confirmed, cleanly attributed AI-agent-caused intrusions into critical infrastructure or a named F500 firm are extremely rare — attribution is technically hard and organizations avoid disclosure. The analyst and Skeptic both set 0.20, with the Skeptic explicitly flagging that base rates matter and that attribution standards need tightening. Cybersecurity is my WORST-calibrated sector (Brier 0.478, over by ~36pp), which means my instinct is to overstate such 'scary tech' probabilities — the correct self-correction is to hold low, not inflate. The AI chain is in escalation, which raises capability and attack surface, but the binding constraint here is confirmed public attribution within 12 months, not underlying capability. I nudge slightly below consensus to 0.16 to counter my documented overestimation bias in this sector.