Russia's Black Sea shift from battlefield attrition to sinking merchant ships dominates today's outlook — with further vessel and port strikes highly likely (0.85) and Europe poised for diplomatic and sanctions retaliation — while Ukraine keeps hammering Moscow's airports and the AI buildout accelerates as Nvidia's near-confirmed multibillion-dollar bet on Safe Superintelligence deepens frontier-compute concentration.

The geopolitician (sector weight 1.00, Skeptic risk 74) rates this 0.58. The resolution criterion is broad — ANY additional frontline EU/NATO expulsion within 45 days — and the trigger environment is active: repeated drone incursions into Romanian, Polish and Baltic airspace plus the Black Sea vessel-sinking escalation create strong domestic-political pressure for visible responses. Diplomatic expulsions are a low-cost, high-signal tool European governments reach for readily. My geopolitics under-bias and the breadth of the criterion justify raising above the analyst's mid-range number to 0.66, clearing the dead zone. Pillars: power dynamics, network theory (precedent contagion among frontline states).