Despite recurring Iranian threats following the U.S.-Israel campaign, the Strait of Hormuz will remain open to commercial traffic with no sustained closure beyond 24 hours over the next month. U.S. naval presence, ongoing Switzerland-channel diplomacy, and Iran's own economic dependence on the strait make an effective blockade highly unlikely.
Synthesis:
Markets stay calm (VIX 16, Brent $80) on confidence the Strait of Hormuz stays open through the Iran-war aftermath, even as the Russia-Ukraine missile war escalates toward record monthly strikes, Beijing locks in discounted Russian crude, and Brussels moves to fence Starlink out of EU satellite spectrum.
Seldon's Analysis:
I push above the bull's 0.78. Market data is decisive: VIX fell 11% to 16.4 and Brent sits at only $80.59 (+0.9%) — markets are pricing calm, not a Hormuz tail risk. The Middle East chain is in the aftermath stage; its dominant Density-Matrix interpretation is 'Stabilization With Iran Gains' (informal ceasefire holds 90%). The historical base rate is overwhelming: despite decades of threats, Iran has never effected a sustained Hormuz closure because it would choke its own exports and trigger direct U.S. response. Economist_bull is outside its strongest domain here, but the direction is robust. Economics is a weak sector for me where I systematically under-predict (~12pp), which further justifies raising the number. I cap at 0.90 rather than higher to preserve room for a brief tanker incident or harassment event that briefly disrupts but does not 'close' the strait.