A widening war-risk premium dominates today's outlook: Brent's jump to $94.54 threatens to lock in $95+ oil and revive stagflation fears, while Russia's finances strain toward a record wartime deficit and the Kremlin readies new anti-sabotage powers. In parallel, a confirmed 25-lawmaker push primes Washington for a formal escalation against EU digital rules.

The base rate for Russian wartime legal tightening is very high, and the Russia–West chain is firmly in ESCALATION stage with ~3,000 UAVs launched in a week, attacks on Wildberries logistics and energy facilities, and heavy Belgorod strikes — all providing narrative cover the FSB and Duma have repeatedly used to expand authority (Skeptic risk 82). Historical cycles show Russian security organs consistently gain statutory power during homeland stress. The Skeptic correctly flags the reasoning as one-sided; the 120-day window and broad resolution criteria (any of: Duma amendments, a Putin decree expanding FSB/Rosgvardia powers, or new prosecutions under 'aiding the enemy') make the outcome robust to any single legislative delay. The political agent has no track-record weight, so I lean on the strong base rate and escalation-stage evidence rather than the analyst's confidence, landing modestly above the proposal at 0.72. I dropped the overlapping military 'Rosgvardia mobilization-readiness' proposal (dead-zone 0.58, vaguer criteria, weak-sector for me) in favor of this cleaner, better-supported forecast.