Compounding pressure on Russia dominates the outlook: a federal deficit set to breach 10 trillion rubles collides with an advancing US sanctions bill, pre-election food-price interventions, cyber-espionage against EU sanctions networks, and continued grinding gains in Sumy-Kharkiv — even as the global AI buildout keeps accelerating through Alphabet's capex and looming US curbs on HBM memory exports to China.

Fact-check confirms this is real and advancing: the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 (Graham/Blumenthal) was revised and reintroduced July 14, previously stalled awaiting a sign-off that has now come via a reported deal with Trump. Bipartisan Senate backing (reported 82-12 direction) is strong. The principal downside risk is Trump himself (BVI 8): his escalate→deal→claim-victory cycle means he could water down provisions or delay to preserve negotiating leverage, and 'enacts/signs into law' is a higher bar than Senate passage over a 6-month window. Legislative calendars also slip. Against that, the geopolitician agent carries top weight (1.00, Brier 0.18), and my own geopolitics record shows I UNDERESTIMATE by ~21pp — a large correction. Netting the strong bipartisan momentum plus Trump's buy-in against execution/timing risk and Trump volatility, I set 0.74, above the Skeptic's 0.68. Pillars: Game Theory (economic coercion) and Psychohistory (US sanctions-escalation pattern).