Escalation-by-attrition dominates today's outlook: an active North Korean missile cycle and Iran's counter-espionage crackdown run alongside Armenia's near-complete break from Russia's CSTO, while China's property slump stays entrenched — but a direct Russia-NATO clash remains a low-probability tail despite Polymarket noise.

Geopolitics is my strongest sector, so I lean into an above-analyst read supported by fresh evidence. Fact-check shows the trajectory is far advanced: Armenia stopped financing the CSTO (Mar 2025), Pashinyan reportedly told associates Armenia would likely withdraw ~Feb 2026, he publicly states exit is more likely than resumed participation, and by Apr 2026 Russia was telling Armenia to stop claiming membership — a de facto rupture. Against a completed freeze plus overt exit signaling, formal legal withdrawal within a year is the modal path. The Skeptic passed at 0.64 (risk 72). I raise to 0.70. What restrains me from going higher: Armenia has deliberately preserved ambiguity to avoid fully provoking Moscow, and formal parliamentary withdrawal can be delayed for leverage or tied to the Azerbaijan peace process; the 'Armenian church conflict' chain (confirmation stage, 'US pivot leverage' interpretation) shows the realignment is contested domestically.