Defense mobilization dominates today's outlook: a confirmed NATO Ankara summit is set to lock in a spending floor above 3% of GDP while US-Europe missile co-production talks harden into deals, all against the aftermath of the US-Iran war — where CENTCOM reinforcement and Iranian cyber retaliation loom even as oil stays contained near $76. Counter to consensus, we judge Russia unlikely to announce formal mobilization and France unlikely to see either Le Pen-driven or austerity-driven mass protest waves.

This forecast benefits from a low resolution bar (low-level incidents in three states over 45 days) against a well-documented, ongoing pattern of Russia-linked sabotage-for-hire across Europe through 2024–2026. The Russia-West confrontation chain is in escalation, and the Eurasian domestic-security chain (low purity 0.28) includes 'internal security threats persist' as a high-probability outcome. The main uncertainty is attribution/detection lag within the window, not whether such incidents occur. I lift above the Skeptic's 0.62 (out of the dead zone) because the trend continuity and low threshold genuinely support it, while capping at 0.68 given my social over-prediction bias and the fuzziness of tying incidents to Telegram recruitment specifically.