Russia's drone-induced fuel crisis is forcing near-certain state market intervention, while Europe's industrial decline powers a record AfD surge — even as US bond-market and Western wildfire tail risks loom in the background.

This merges the economist (idx 1) and political (idx 9) proposals, which describe the same intervention story from demand-management and regime-stability angles. Fact-checking confirms the crisis is real and active: Russia has already imposed jet-fuel export bans and regional rationing is underway (Wikipedia '2025-2026 Russian fuel crisis', Bloomberg reporting). The economic-volatility event chain assigns 50% to a 'Russia Fuel Crisis' interpretation with 'fuel export restrictions: 80%' — the strongest single interpretation in that chain. Putin's profile (BVI 5) shows LOW tolerance for economic self-harm and fast emergency reaction when regime stability is threatened; domestic fuel shortages are exactly the kind of social-stability trigger that produces decisive intervention. Russia has repeatedly used export bans as a recurring tool throughout 2024-2025, so the base rate of 'at least one new/extended measure' in a 57-day window is very high. My economics track record shows I UNDERPREDICT by ~13pp, which supports raising above the analysts' 0.58-0.68. The Skeptic (risk 66-72) endorsed the logic while cautioning against overstating a specific single mechanism — I address this by making the resolution broad (any one of several measures), which is what pushes probability high. Set at 0.82.