Pentagon's confirmed 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany and the Federal Reserve's high-conviction extended pause anchor today's outlook, while Iran's Hormuz tax theater and Chornobyl forest fire generate headlines but lower follow-through risk than the consensus suggests.

Environment is a failing sector for me (Brier 0.38, +28pp over-bias) — strong compression mandated. Climatologist at 0.33; I move to 0.25. Historical analogs: 2020 Chornobyl fire (11,500 hectares — ten times current size) produced detectable Cs-137 increases in regional air monitors but at levels well below safety thresholds, and only marginally cross-border. Current 1,100 hectare fire is one-tenth that scale. Ukrainian State Scientific and Technical Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety explicitly states no current radiation threat. 'Measurable dispersion beyond borders' is technically possible with sensitive monitoring (CTBTO stations detect any nuclear signal), but actionable resolution typically requires media-confirmed threshold breach. Three reasons I could be wrong: (1) fire could grow rapidly with dry conditions; (2) wind shift toward Belarus/Poland; (3) sensitive monitoring picks up trace particles with media coverage. These are the main paths to upside; combined ~25%.