Great-power stabilization anchors the outlook: Xi Jinping's confirmed Sept 24 Washington summit is set to yield narrow US-China energy deliverables even as a Saudi pipeline strike pushes Brent to $104 and forces European emergency energy measures. Beijing and New Delhi are poised to keep buying Russian oil despite Washington's new sanctions law, while gray-zone friction in the South China Sea, anti-AfD mobilization in Germany, and sticky US mortgage rates round out a multi-crisis week.

At 6.95% currently, the rate would need to fall ~20bp in roughly 100 days to breach below 6.75% — possible with Fed cuts but resisted by a sticky term premium. The 2s10s spread reads +0.25 (mildly positive), and the energy-driven inflation risk premium (Brent ~$104) works against a rapid long-end rally. The Skeptic passed at 68, the softest score in the pool, reflecting genuine rate-path uncertainty. The economist carries a strong record (Brier 0.17, improving, weight 1.00). I raise from the analyst's 0.64 to 0.76, applying my documented economics under-prediction bias correction (I run ~15pp low in this sector) and reflecting that stickiness favors persistence. This keeps the forecast clear of the coin-flip dead zone with justification.