Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the March 2026 meeting Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the March 2026 meeting Economics Medium Resolved Short-term (1-7d) Correct ⚙ Auto-resolved
Description: With the FOMC meeting days away, the Middle East oil shock has introduced fresh inflationary risk that effectively forecloses any dovish surprise. The Fed will hold the target range unchanged, reinforcing a higher-for-longer posture as energy prices elevate near-term CPI expectations.
Synthesis: The Hormuz crisis dominates today's outlook: Iran's selective strait control cascades into oil market disruption, Fed policy rigidity, cyber escalation risk, and US naval reinforcement — while US-China tech decoupling deepens in the shadow of Middle East conflict.
Analysis: Economist +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 74/100
+ Resolution Evidence (1) ▼
Resolution Attempts (1) ▼
Probability History: 03/16/2026, 06:20 PM 03/17/2026, 12:14 AM 03/17/2026, 12:20 PM 03/17/2026, 06:17 PM 03/19/2026, 08:20 AM 03/19/2026, 06:11 PM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ▼ Probability Updates (6)
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