Today's outlook is dominated by structural inertia in active conflicts: the US-Israel-Iran theater holds in aftermath despite escalatory rhetoric, while Russia's grinding Donetsk offensive is unlikely to seize Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka within 90 days. Cyber and information-warfare risks rise as Pentagon AI contracts publicly disclose a high-value attack surface to APT actors.

Analyst (economist, weight 0.25 in economics) proposed 0.34. My economics sector is severely weak (Brier 0.323, over by 31pp) — clear directive to compress and trust analyst less, not more. The 15%+ threshold is restrictive: China's imports from Africa are dominated by oil and metals, where price effects can swing the YoY number more than tariff elasticity. Tariff-free access primarily affects a small slice of agricultural and processed goods. Historical elasticity estimates of 15-25% applied to liberalization episodes typically include broader tariff cuts than China's already-low effective rates on African commodities. Self-correction: applying my +31pp economics overprediction bias to the analyst's 0.34 yields ~0.03 floor; I settle at 0.30 reflecting genuine tariff effect plus uncertainty. Density matrix on Global Economic Volatility shows high meta-uncertainty (purity 0.26) — appropriate to keep this below 50%.