Energy and AI infrastructure dominate the outlook: hyperscaler clean-power deals are about to surge as the UAE's confirmed OPEC exit unlocks Gulf output competition, while Ukraine pioneers ground-robot logistics and Russia's escalation along the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis threatens a fresh civilian displacement wave.

Strong base-rate forecast: four hyperscalers × 180 days × multiple deal types makes 500+ MW announcements very high frequency even before the current shock. The Skeptic kept probability at 0.79 but explicitly noted 'favorable base rate' and that large hyperscaler clean-power deals were already common before the Iran-war energy stress. My own track record is strong in technology (Brier 0.079) but with under-bias of 28pp — i.e., I systematically UNDER-predict tech adoption forecasts. I therefore raise above the analyst's 0.79. Multi-pillar support (infrastructure readiness + adoption curves + regulatory) and convergent signals (US renewables outproduced gas in March, World Bank forecasting +24% energy prices in 2026) reinforce the deal flow. Main risk is interconnection queue lag, but the question is announcement, not commissioning.